Russia and Ukraine’s conflict isn’t Biden’s fault. But many voters won’t see it that way.
Although the Biden administration took tough actions against Russia, the president was unable to dissuade Putin from attacking Ukraine. Going into the midterms and 2024, this is a nightmare.
American political instability and weakness could bring change…
Lincoln Mitchell, political analyst,
Ukraine puts Biden and Trump on the brink…
Even though fault for this conflict lies much more with the Russian president than with Joe Biden, voters in the U.S. are unlikely to see it that way as many already hold Biden responsible for these problems.
The person who stands to benefit the most from a politically weakened Biden is the front-runner for the Republican nomination in 2024: Donald Trump. Trump has wasted no time criticizing Biden’s handling of the conflict, essentially supporting Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. On Tuesday, Trump seemed to celebrate Putin’s latest move to war. “I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” he said. He and his supporters also claim that Putin would not have threatened war with Ukraine if he were still president.
It is still early in Biden’s presidency, but he has been struggling in the polls since around the middle of last year. A war between Russia and Ukraine and corresponding inflation and supply chain problems could fatally damage Biden’s re-election chances and potentially usher Trump back into the White House. Given what the first Trump presidency was like, particularly its last few months, that development would further destabilize the U.S., where democracy is already in crisis — and nobody would like to see that more than Vladimir Putin.
Lincoln Mitchell also explained how the war could tilt the entire balance…
Natural gas and oil shortage…
Lincoln Mitchell, political analyst,
Currently, about 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas and oil comes from Russia. If more sanctions are put in place, Russia decides to punish the West by cutting off shipments or if the conflict disrupts Russia’s ability to get the gas to Europe through existing methods, prices for natural gas and oil all over the world will rise. Russia will suffer for it, but so will consumers in many Western countries. For much of its foreign oil supply, the U.S. relies on Russia, so a war that causes the price of oil to continue to rise could be catastrophic. At a time when many people in the U.S. are seeing inflation as a big problem, heightened gas and oil prices will not be good news for the Biden administration.
Food and wheat shortage…
Lincoln Mitchell, political analyst,
It is also axiomatic that a major war between two big countries in the middle of Europe would exacerbate existing supply chain problems, particularly if the conflict spreads to other countries. Both Ukraine and Russia are major wheat suppliers (primarily for Europe), so a war could drive up the cost of basic food items like bread. None of this will directly affect the U.S., which does not have substantial trade with either country, but because of the global nature of trade, the U.S. would be affected indirectly if the war leads to shortages.
Rising inflation and persistent supply chain problems
Lincoln Mitchell, political analyst,
Rising inflation and persistent supply chain problems are exactly what the Biden administration and the Democratic Party do not want as the midterm elections approach.
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